Peak Oil

Well, before we disregard Chicken Little completely allow me to share some of my studies on a phenomenon which deserves at least passing attention. Why intellectual conservatism steers away from environmental and resource issues remains a mystery to me. Nevertheless, here are some things which deserve consideration.

Peak Oil Theory is the idea that there is a finite amount of oil that can be pulled from the ground per day, and that we will reach the climax of that amount within the next decade. After the climax will come a steady downslide in production amounts which reflect the behavior of all small oil sources which have peaked in the past. These include the United States, Great Britain, Russia, most major fields in the world. Just last year the Bergan oilfield in Kuwait peaked. Many scientists and others are concerned that estimates are exaggerated in Middle Eastern countries because the amount you are allowed to sell is based on recoverable reserves. Major nations have put enormous pressure on producers of oil to ship more every year. Saudi Arabia went as far as injecting their fields with saline water from the sea to speed pumping of oil. Recently the oil has shown a decreasing quality as the saline begins to mix with the petroleum.

As oil gets harder to draw out it becomes more expensive and lower quality. This means more refining (more expensive again) and all the while demand is increasing around the world (more expensive again).

I am a man who enjoys looking at facts and am skeptical of simple presentation. The fact is, oil is going up in price. The fact is, demand from China and India is huge and increasing as is use in the U.S. The fact is minor disruptions in supply have immediate and major effects on price and even availability of oil and gas because the supply chain is not elastic and cannot absorb the changes as it once did. The fact is geopolitical events are all shaping up around countries that have, or have access to OIL!

Oil is everything plastic. It is fertilizer and transportation of goods. It is electricity because it is infrastructure; parts, staff, transportation to units for repair and maintenence..

It is concerning to look at where major energy investors are putting their money. They are NOT putting it new refineries or natural gas plants, and they are not putting in exploration or transport infrastructure. Why not? Well I really do not know but it seems apparent that they do not see enough profit to warrant the investment = input of resources.

Oil is planting and harvesting of large fields, it is moving food from one place to another. The average piece of food YOU eat travels 1,500 miles before ending in your belly. Food prices are going up. Every price is going up. The dollar is losing a little value and gold is going up. If you budget and buy the same foods every week you will have noticed a slow 50% price increase on all foods over the last 8 months or so in Asheville, NC.

This may all be due to Oil and its availability. Alternative energy cannot substitute for oil on a mass, national scale. Biodiesel takes more energy to produce than it yields (EROIE; Energy return on energy invested). It's ok for a stop gap thing, but it won't work on massive scale.

"The individual is handicapped by coming face to face with a conspiracy so monstrous he cannot believe it exists." - J. Edgar Hoover

So, what if it is all a conspiracy anyway. A lot of people say there's nothing to it because like the bird flu it's just government or corporate manipulation to make you afraid and control your behavior. I won't even go into how stupid some of these arguments can get, and maybe some are true, but whether or not the cause is true is irrelevant. The effect is what we are concerned with here. Look at the people in N'Orleans who went to violence, rape, and thuggery, just days after society fell around them. The police themselves stole cars and gangs went after grudges, kids were raped in front of crowds with no protection from people around at the Superdome. Whatever the cause, the effect was a disaster.

I have a lot of material I can share with you if you want to challenge me on Peak Oil. Please do! Take me on! I don't know if it is true or not, but there is a lot of evidence that will make you take a second look at EVERY MAJOR POLITICAL EVENT IN OUR WORLD TODAY. South American alliances. Chinese influence. African strategies. Middle Eastern tension. Korean missiles. Indian strife with Pakistan. Russian unrest with European nations. Resources in Afghanistan. Think of huge, hungry dogs, which have been nice in public, all sitting around the scraps of bacon on a table. How long will they wait. What will they do. Who will eat?

The chess game is underway, and it can be entertaining to hear about reasons for rolling blackouts in cities across the U.S. It is interesting to watch the commentators talk about Katrina and why gas is out in the Fall, and then hear another reason entirely the next Spring. It is surprising to see how money is moving around and watch it like clouds on the horizon, as a forecast for likely future scenarios. If you plug PEAK OIL into the equation, it all begins to make a little more sense.

The sky falling? Nah. But being able to grow food is never bad. And having solar energy self sufficiency is fun. Supporting community networking is healthy and positive. And if the safety of your family is compromised by a group of sketchy, potentially armed men, being able to take care of business on a methodical and professional level is the best thing you could have ever learned.

I look forward to speaking with in person, in the meantime check out the U.S. Civil Rangers for skill ideas and tips for preparedness.

Sincerely,

Spencer Bolejack

Land of the Sky Martial Arts

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